MARKET OUTLOOK
 
                         OCT 09, 2009

                        

 

SUPPORT

TODAY’S MARKET LEVELS

RESISTANCE

2

1

1

2

16622/560/435

16764/730

SENSEX – 16843.54

16913/988

17120/196/260

4934/15/4876

4977/67

NSE - 5002.25

5011/46

5087/5110/30

 

                   OVERVIEW & BRIEF TECHNICAL

 


Is larger 'G' a "Double Combination"?

Market closed flat with marginally negative A/D ratio and normal volume. We have given below 30 minute chart of SENSEX showing 'Double Combination' within larger 'G'.

As opposed to positive global scenario, will our market outperform in favor of bearishness? Last 7 months rally of 9000+ points has really ended with a 7 leg diametric formation? All these questions can be answered only upon practically seeing the break of 16622 level on closing basis.

Such break will also violate the b-b line of assumed DC as well as confirm the end of 'G'. On the other hand, if our market follows the increasing global bullishness, and attempts to create new high, a major change in chart structure will be required. Last 4 days, Indian market has not followed the global foot steps. This encourages to believe the validity of present interpreted structure.

Now, going by current analysis, we can see a contracting triangle (a-b-c-d-e) in second corrective of Double Combination, which has broken b-d line already (see chart). Further, it should break 16730 (D-F line) and then 16622 quickly to turnaround the sentiments of market fraternity from neutral to negative.

We would bet more on bearish side though, today i.e. Friday is a crucial decider. Shorts if any, should be protected with a stop loss above 17120 but, below 16622 one can add more.
Supports are at 16764/16730/16622/16560/16435 and resistances are placed at 16913/16988/17120/17196/17260.

 

 

 

 

LONG TERM MARKET VIEW ... Authored in Sept. 2005
(Latest long term view will be updated soon)

 

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STOCK

 

 


 

CMP

 


         SUPPORT

 

 


 

RECOMMENDATIONS

(If limits does not come, sell below S1)



 

S/LOSS

 


RESISTANCE


S2


S1


R1


R2

 

AXIS BANK

1013 980 1000 Go Long on some decline @ 1002/1006 with a given stop-loss. 979 1020 1048

HDIL

363 338 352 Go Long on some decline @ 352/354 with a given stop-loss. 337 367 378

L & T

1650 1590 1630 Go Short on some rise @ 1664/1672 with a given stop-loss. 1691 1670 1690

SBI

2115 2060 2088 Go Short on some rise @ 2128/2132 with a given stop-loss. 2154 2133 2150

SUZLON

86.45 80.60 84.90 Go Short on some rise @ 87.40/87.70 with a given stop-loss. 89.40 87.80 89.25

 

                      (OPEN CALLS OCT. 2009)
                     SMART TRADERS DWELLING RING
                                  RIDE THE TREND TILL THE WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE INDICATES THAT IT HAS REVERSED
                              (DERIVATIVES PICKS
                             (Future prices)
                         
              
(If given limit does not come but (NIFTY or Stock trades) beyond T1, you may choose to trade for T2 in desired direction)

STOCK

CALL STARTED ON

TRAD INST

TREND

LONG/
SHORT

S/L

TARGET

TARGET ACHIEVED ON

NO OF DAYS

% RETURN

T1

T2

T1

T2

                       
NIFTY 09/10 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 5053/5055 5017 5082 5120/50  

OPEN

   
NIFTY 09/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5017/5024 5053 4998/64 4936/04  

OPEN

   
NIFTY 08/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5022/5028 5081 4964/20 4870  

CLOSED 08/10

1 Day 8.1%
NIFTY 07/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5075/5080 5111 5046 4996  

CLOSED 07/10

1 Day 12.6%
NIFTY 07/10 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 4988/4996 4934 5046 5080  

CLOSED 07/10

1 Day almost T1 achieved
NIFTY 06/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5026/5032 5056 4995 4972  

CLOSED 06/10

1 Day 8.9%
NIFTY 05/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5039/5037 5091 5005 4992/72  

CLOSED 05/10

1 Day 5.7%
NIFTY 01/10 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 5042/5052 4989 5080 5130/70  

CLOSED 01/10

2 Day 5.9%
NIFTY 29/09 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 4966/4968 4929 5008/27 5048/75  

CLOSED 30/09

2 Day 16.8%
NIFTY 25/09 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 4962/4966 4919 5010/27 5048/75  

CLOSED 25/09

1 Day 6.7%

 

Feedback and comments are invited from the readers.

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DISCLAIMER:  Author's recommendations are solely made with the purpose to educate the market participants/traders/investors and to enable them to derive maximum benefits by acting upon them. While due care has been taken in preparing these comments, no responsibility will be assumed by the author for the consequences whatsoever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations.