MARKET OUTLOOK
 
                         OCT 30, 2009

                        

 

SUPPORT

TODAY’S MARKET LEVELS

RESISTANCE

2

1

1

2

15860/740

15993/923

SENSEX – 16052.72

16120/197

16280/342/380

4692/55

4733/11

NSE - 4750.55

4772/95

4821/40/52

 

                   OVERVIEW & BRIEF TECHNICAL

 


F & O series ended with weakness 

With negative A/D ratio of 1:2 and high volatility, series ended with weakness. Despite short term oversold condition, market failed to bounce back. Looking at 60 minutes chart given here, it appears that the decline is either corrective or impulsive and until and unless ending waves are over, turnaround will be unlikely.

The nature of decline will be clear with the passage of time however, if it is corrective, currently we could be in second part of it, after 'x' (see chart). In case of impulsive, probably wave 4 is in the making to be followed by wave 5 going down.

Once, first set of decline with whatever pattern it unfolds with is over, we will see a minor bottom of this decline only to cause a relief rally within a larger decline. Such bottom is expected to take place anytime in next one or two days. In other words, if the decline is corrective bottom is very near, else .. it will be delayed a bit in case of impulsive till wave 5 goes down.

Above 16197 and 16264, strength will be seen while below 15993 weakness will creep in. Traders are advise to go with the flow of the market by following the given levels. Supports for the day are at 15993/15923/15860/15740 and resistances are placed at 16120/16197/16280/16342/16380.

 

 

 

 

LONG TERM MARKET VIEW ... Authored in Sept. 2005
(Latest long term view will be updated soon)

 

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STOCK

 

 


 

CMP

 


         SUPPORT

 

 


 

RECOMMENDATIONS

(If limits does not come, sell below S1)



 

S/LOSS

 


RESISTANCE


S2


S1


R1


R2

 

ABB

759 745/36 756 Go Short on some rise @ 762/764 with a given stop-loss. 776 764 775

HDFC

2675 2580 2652/21 Go Short only below S1 @ 2651/2649 with a given stop-loss. 2691 2690 2715

ITC

260 255 258 Go Long on some decline @ 258/258.5 with a given stop-loss. 254 263 268

L & T

1573 1545/05 1558 Go Short only below S1 @ 1557/1556 with a given stop-loss. 1587 1586 1598

RIL

2004 1930 1990/75 Go Short only below S1 @ 1988/1986 with a given stop-loss. 2021 2020 2043

 

                      (OPEN CALLS OCT. 2009)
                     SMART TRADERS DWELLING RING
                                  RIDE THE TREND TILL THE WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE INDICATES THAT IT HAS REVERSED
                              (DERIVATIVES PICKS
                             (Future prices)
                         
              
(If given limit does not come but (NIFTY or Stock trades) beyond T1, you may choose to trade for T2 in desired direction)

STOCK

CALL STARTED ON

TRAD INST

TREND

LONG/
SHORT

S/L

TARGET

TARGET ACHIEVED ON

NO OF DAYS

% RETURN

T1

T2

T1

T2

                       
NIFTY 30/10 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 4834/4836 4798 4870 4895  

OPEN

   
NIFTY 30/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 4798/4804 4834 4761 4735/15  

OPEN

   
NIFTY 30/10 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 4716/4720 4663 4740/61 4800  

OPEN

   
NIFTY 29/10 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 4868/4870 4842 4905 4936  

CLOSED 29/10

1 Day Limit not come
NIFTY 29/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 4842/4846 4868 4792 4775/56  

CLOSED 29/10

1 Day 6.9%
NIFTY 29/10 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 4756/4754 4727 4775/92 4842  

CLOSED 29/10

1 Day 11.7%
NIFTY 28/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 4892/4902 4926 4838 4795/75  

CLOSED 28/10

1 Day 6.7%
NIFTY 27/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 4996/5002 5044 4965 4920  

CLOSED 27/10

1 Day 6.2%
NIFTY 23/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5014/5018 5069 4972 4930/10  

CLOSED 26/10

2 Day 6.9%
NIFTY 22/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5088/5092 5124 5058 5028/10  

CLOSED 22/10

1 Day 7.5%
NIFTY 20/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5134/5138 5166 5116 5080/40  

CLOSED 20/10

1 Day 5.6%
NIFTY 14/10 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 5081/5083 5012 5130 5160  

CLOSED 14/10

1 Day 6.7%
NIFTY 12/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 4966/4974 5007 4918 4865/25  

CLOSED 12/10

1 Day -5.7%
NIFTY 09/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5017/5024 5053 4998/64 4936/04  

CLOSED 09/10

1 Day 13.7%
NIFTY 08/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5022/5028 5081 4964/20 4870  

CLOSED 08/10

1 Day 8.1%
NIFTY 07/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5075/5080 5111 5046 4996  

CLOSED 07/10

1 Day 12.6%
NIFTY 06/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5026/5032 5056 4995 4972  

CLOSED 06/10

1 Day 8.9%
NIFTY 05/10 FUTURE  DOWN SELL @ 5039/5037 5091 5005 4992/72  

CLOSED 05/10

1 Day 5.7%
NIFTY 01/10 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 5042/5052 4989 5080 5130/70  

CLOSED 01/10

2 Day 5.9%
NIFTY 29/09 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 4966/4968 4929 5008/27 5048/75  

CLOSED 30/09

2 Day 16.8%
NIFTY 25/09 FUTURE  UP LONG @ 4962/4966 4919 5010/27 5048/75  

CLOSED 25/09

1 Day 6.7%

 

Feedback and comments are invited from the readers.

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DISCLAIMER:  Author's recommendations are solely made with the purpose to educate the market participants/traders/investors and to enable them to derive maximum benefits by acting upon them. While due care has been taken in preparing these comments, no responsibility will be assumed by the author for the consequences whatsoever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations.